特邀报告人：斯洛博丹西蒙诺维克，加拿大国家工程院院士 Speaker：Slobodan Simonovic，Canadian Academy of Engineering 题目：气候变化条件下的洪水风险管理 Title：Floods in a Changing Climate: Risk Management 时间：2015年5月30日 8:30-9:00 Time：May 30th 2015 8:30 am -9:00 am 摘要 洪水作为最常见的自然灾害，其发生 的频率、规模和产生的损失在世界范围内 呈现上升趋势。在气候变化和全球变暖的 背景下，洪水的发生与大气的联系不断增 强，使得未来气候条件下洪水的发生频率 呈增加态势。洪水的严重程度和风险与泛 洪区内外的人类活动密切相关。土地利用 方式和排水形式的改变有可能会显著增加 洪水风险，而人口增长也会增加受威胁人 群的数量。洪水风险管理的本质是试图预 测和预防或减缓可避免的灾害。本次报告 主要介绍洪水风险管理的系统方法，可为 涉及洪水灾害管理的跨学科研究提供支 持。典型案例展示了一种对市政设施的风 险定量方法，并已用于分析加拿大安大略 省伦敦市气候变化引起的洪水风险。通过对市区建筑、道路、桥梁等每一个基础设 施的风险指标计算，整个地区的风险值被 聚集成空间单元在表格或地图中表征出 来，可很好地为家庭和商业业主、紧急服 务区、政府决策者以及公众传达风险信息。 Abstract Floods are the most common natural disasters. Their frequency, magnitude, and cost are on the rise all over the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that it is certain that floods will increase in future climates. Flood severity and risk are to a large extent determined by human activities, both within the floodplain and outside. Changes in land use and drainage patterns may greatly increase the risk of flooding. Population growth is likely to increase the number of people at risk. Flood risk management is the attempt to anticipate and prevent or mitigate harm that may be avoidable. The main goal of this lecture is to introduce the systems approach to flood risk management as an alternative approach that can provide support for interdisciplinary activities involved in the management of flood disasters. Selected example presents a methodology developed to quantify the risk to municipal infrastructure including buildings, roads, bridges, critical facilities, dykes and pollution control plants. The methodology has been applied to the assessment of climate change caused flood risk to the City of London, Ontario, Canada. The measure of risk is termed the Risk Index and calculated for each infrastructure element within a municipality. The risk is aggregated and summed by spatial unit and presented in the form of risk tables and maps. This type of output communicates risk information to home- and business-owners, emergency services, municipal decision makers, and general public. | 
